Wednesday, February 21

SpaceX Starlink Orbital Capacity and Usable Capacity

Microsoft Director and Kymeta board member, Tren Griffin, inquired about my estimate of active SpaceX Starlink capability. Here is my explanation of my procedure and analysis utilizing an estimate of theoretical orbital interaction capability as a metric for photo analysis of the Starlink network and worldwide user capability.

There are 5147 work Starlink Satellites in orbit. There have to do with 880 of those are V2 mini. This would have to do with 4267 V1.5 or earlier Starlink satellites. Each satellite has available interaction footprint on the ground of possibly 800 miles by 800 miles. The numerous antennas and selections can target various sections inside that theoretical footprint.

There are 4530 Starlink satellites are active. 4267 v1.5 and V1 Starlink satellites. 4200 V1.5 Starlink have an overall of about 63000 overall Gbps and 266 active V2 mini each with 60 Gbps is 15800 Gbps. The overall triggered SpaceX Starlink capability has to do with 76,000 Gbps.

It will take about 2-3 months for the presently in orbit V2 mini satellites to get in area and trigger. This will have to do with 200-300 monthly. Possibly 100 v2 mini-satellites might trigger by Dec 31, 2023. This would be another 6000 Gbps to 82,000 Gbps.

The overall Starlink satellite bandwidth is a theoretical number, that I utilize for photo approximations.

SpaceX can approach utilizing 10-15% of this capability.
The United States has 1.87% United States of the Earth area, however 60% of the overall international Starlink consumers. Starlink satellites as much as 400 miles outside borders of the United States can still service the United States. A satellite over Kamloops can still service Seattle. SpaceX is utilizing about 3-4% of its worldwide capability.
There are 1.3 million United States clients and 1 million in the remainder of the world presently.

The SpaceX objective must be to get 5X as lots of consumers in the remainder of the world as their United States consumers. IF at the end of February 2024, all presently in orbit V2 mini are triggered then the orbital capability would be 4260 V1.5 for 63000 Gbps and 880 V2 mini for 52000 Gbps for an overall of 115000 Gbps. In 2024, there need to have to do with 120 launches with each bring 22 V2 mini which will include 158,400 Gbps orbital Starlink capability for an overall of 270,000 Gbps when completely active. This would have to do with 3 times the 76,000 Gbps presently active even with 230,000 Gbps active by the end of 2024.

The United States is at or near optimum use 2% of the worldwide fleet able to service the USA. The 2% of satellites serve 1.3 million clients with 2% of 76,000 Gbps or 1,500 Gbps. By the end of 2024, United States can go to 3.9 million clients and rest of world can be 5X that with 19.5 million. If the offered functional capability was completed with Asia, Europe and so on. clients. Other computations restrict the use to about 10% of the orbital satellite capability. This would restrict the rest of world to 4X United States levels at 15.6 million.

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